I recently wrote a post about who the Labour Party
represents and thought it would make sense to follow this up with a similar
article about the Conservatives, especially with the Budget fresh in
everybody’s mind.
The simplest starting point and to connect with the previous
article is probably to say who they do not represent. Two of the groups mentioned in the previous
article are clearly not favoured by Conservative policies: those working in the
public sector (circa 11.7% of voters, and referred to henceforth as “Public
Servants”), who have seen significant job cuts and low pay settlements; and those
who may or may not work, but who rely primarily on support through the benefit
system, who have seen measures such as the benefits cap, tougher Housing Benefit
(notably the so called “bedroom tax”), Jobseeker’s Allowance and Disability Benefit
rules (estimated at 15% of voters, based on number of Council Tax benefit
claimants plus 1m people, and referred hereafter as “State Beneficiaries”).
Next the relatively simple identification of clear groups
that Conservative policies have favoured, at least relative to Labour. Those with high incomes (>£150,000) or
significant properties will certainly be better off based on stated tax
policies, and anybody earning >£52,000 and contributing to a pension will be
better off although the amounts are dependent on the level of income and
contributions. Next, those who own
significant (>£250,000) assets or businesses, while not having been the
subject of specific tax policies, can reasonably surmise that they would be
better off under the Tories. So while
certainly greater than the so called “1%”, it is probably fair to say that the
top 10% (which will include a relatively small number in the public sector, so
let us assume this 10% and the 11.7% mentioned in the previous paragraph are
separate) in terms of either income or wealth would be better off under the
Tories; for simplicity I shall refer to all of the above as the “Well Off”.
So, we have 10% of voters who are definitely represented by
the Conservative Party and circa 27% who are certainly not; so that leaves 63%
who are up for grabs. These people, who
I shall call the “Broad Working Class”, are the equivalent of those who in
1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 voted in droves for the Conservatives, and in 1997,
2001 and 2005 did the same for Tony Blair’s New Labour. Now, it is unrealistic to think that 63% of
voters are ever likely to be attracted to just one party’s policies, but
gaining the majority of this Broad Working Class will dictate who wins this
election.
As I posted last time, Labour’s problem is with attracting
the Broad Working Class while not alienating State Beneficiaries at a time of
austerity. The Conservatives face a
similar challenge; attracting the Broad Working Class without alienating the
Well Off, however the electoral maths are somewhat different. Neither the Well Off nor the State
Beneficiaries have historically had anywhere else to go in electoral terms;
this time it remains true of the Well Off but not the State Beneficiaries. The SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party are
all promoting anti-austerity policies that would appeal to State Beneficiaries,
plus many may decide just not to vote.
For the Conservatives, the challenge on the right comes from UKIP, which
as a populist movement is more a challenge for the Broad Working Class than the
Well Off, who in turn are more likely to vote than State Beneficiaries.
So does the Conservative Party represent the Broad Working
Class, or at least enough of it to win the election? What does this week’s Budget indicate? I think it shows that the current Coalition
is representing the Broad Working Class, but it is less clear that the
Conservative Party does. Nick Clegg and
Danny Alexander may have severely damaged the electoral prospects of the
Liberal Democrats, but they do appear to have focussed the Coalition policies
more towards the Broad Working Class than the Well Off; the Conservatives went
into the 2010 election with tax cutting focussed on Inheritance Tax, but the
Coalition’s primary tax cut has been to raise the tax threshold massively, a
tax cut whose benefits reduce for people earning over £100,000 and eliminated
if you earn over £150,000. The policies have been harsh, and there are no
doubt that many people have and are suffering as a result, notably among the
Public Servants and the State Beneficiaries, but equally, those policies are increasingly
having a positive impact on many of the Broad Working Class. Record levels of employment, low inflation
and interest rates, and finally rising wage levels and now starting to make the
feel better off, and perhaps the biggest concern amongst many Broad Working
Class Voters would be whether a Conservative only government would be less
interested in them.
No party has published its manifesto yet, but the
indications are that the Conservatives cannot help but lurch towards issues
that appeal to a vocal element of its core membership, but which carry only a
minority interest in the wider population.
The obsession with Europe and the EU is the most obvious, especially
following the UKIP success at the European Parliament elections last year, but
other issues such as ending the hunting ban and further Trade Union legislation
(notably where it appears one sided, e.g. you have to get a higher number of members
voting for a strike, but we will not allow you to make it easier to vote
through the use of online voting). Like
with the tax issue, the Liberal Democrats appear to have helped keep such niche
matters off the legislative table.
If David Cameron wishes to gain a second term as Prime
Minister, he needs to ignore the crazier elements of his own party and focus on
a manifesto that looks more like the current coalition policies. Secretly, I think he rather hopes he has to
have Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander back round the Cabinet table; they make for
far more sensible colleagues than many a noisy Tory back bencher. If there was an option to vote “Current
Coalition” on the voting papers in May, I would anticipate it would be getting
a far better current poll performance than the Tories on their own.
Nick
