Sunday, September 23, 2012

Well That Makes Sense

23 September 2012 Last updated at 13:19 ET

Lib Dem conference: Pension funds could back mortgages - Clegg

By Justin Parkinson Political reporter, BBC News, in Brighton
Housing Many young people are struggling to get on to the housing ladder

Nick Clegg has said parents should be able to use their pension schemes to help their children buy a first home.

Under the Liberal Democrats' plans, a future lump sum pension payout would be used to guarantee the mortgage.

The party says the extra security could result in making homes more attainable, as it could mean young people having to save up for a smaller deposit.

Mr Clegg said the plan could help many "desperate" young people, but the Saga group questioned its viability.

The size of deposits has risen in recent years, as banks have becoming less willing to issue mortgages.

Meanwhile, the number of young people asking for help from families, in the shape of cash sums has increased.

'Not happened before'

The Lib Dems say their scheme would help those with pension payouts due, but who lack large savings.

Mr Clegg told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show: " We are going to work out ways in which parents and grandparents who want to help their children and grandchildren buy a property of their own.

"We are going to allow those parents and grandparents to act as a guarantee if you like so their youngsters...can take out a deposit and buy a home. It is a pension from property scheme."

Liberal Democrat sources said around 250,000 people had a pension pot of £40,000, with a lump sum element of around a quarter - £10,000 - which could be used as a guarantee.

They estimate that 5% of those with a suitable lump sum would take advantage of the scheme, meaning 12,500 people could potentially benefit.

The parent's lump sum would be at risk if the child defaulted on the mortgage repayments, but the rest of the pension would be unaffected.

But Ros Altmann, the director general of Saga - which represents the over-50s - said borrowing money against the expectation of a future lump sum was dangerous.

Otto Thoresen, director general of the Association of British Insurers, said: "We would want to look closely at the detail of the 'pension for property' scheme announced today by Nick Clegg.

"Pensions are designed to mature into a decent retirement income, not for other purposes.

"Any scheme which uses pensions as a guarantee must ensure that it does not inadvertently make the saver worse off when they retire."

I’m sorry, but this has to be the stupidest idea of the day. Let us start with the fundamentals. Young people (any many not so young) cannot afford to buy houses because they are overvalued; the UK average house price is £238,638 (http://bbc.in/QxbsMM) while the median salary for a UK full time worker is £26,244 (http://bit.ly/QxbIvl), a multiple of 9.1 times.

It was long considered sensible to lend a maximum of 80% of the value of a house (I’ve checked my memory by referring to “Bankers’ Lending Techniques”, the standard text book for Chartered Institute of Bankers exams in the 1990s) and the normal multiple of income was the higher of 3 times the higher income and 1 times the lower income or 2.5 times the combined income. Based on a couple both earning the median income, this would imply a house valued at £164,025 and a deposit of £32,805. Now I don’t believe that I’m being overly pessimistic to think that incomes are not going to rise significantly anytime soon, so this makes house overvalued by over 30% on this basis.

So, the suggested solution is to encourage people to borrow too much to buy a fundamentally overvalued asset, and in order to protect the lender (who realises that this is a bad loan waiting to happen), we get the borrower’s parents to put their pension on the line instead. Rather than accepting that house prices are overvalued on any sensible measure, the Government continues to suggest policies that tinker at the edges because they fear to tell the millions of Express and Mail readers and all those watchers of property porn TV shows that they have been duped by a classic bubble, (not unlike the buyers of tulip bulbs in 17th century Amsterdam). They fear that they will not be re-elected unless the false prosperity of rising house prices can be delivered, and this is a fear that they share with the Labour Party, despite this fear being based on mass delusion. House price appreciation adds no economic value; building houses creates economic value, improving houses creates economic value, but just sitting back and hoping for them to rise in value adds nothing.

Nick

Why Creativity is the New Economy

The RSA President's Lecture: Why Creativity is the New Economy

10th Sep 2012; 18:30

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The 2012 RSA President’s Lecture

We are living in a time of "Great Reset" - when economic crisis provides an opportunity to rethink virtually every aspect of our lives - from how and where we live, to how we work, to how we invest in individuals and infrastructure, to how we shape our cities and regions.

Taking a deeper look at the forces reshaping our economy, and giving us a provocative new way to think about why we live as we do - and where we might be headed, Richard Florida shows how these forces, when combined, will spur a fresh era of growth and prosperity, define a new geography of progress, and create surprising opportunities for all of us.

Using lessons from the last ten years to show how Creative Class theory has grown from a prediction to a prescription for an economy in turmoil, Florida argues the need for a new social compact to put us back on the path to economic growth. Florida’s Creative Compact commits to developing the full human potential and creative capabilities of every person, and suggests a new set of institutional supports to ensure a more robust and sustainable social system around the new world of work.

Speaker: Dr Richard Florida, director, the Martin Prosperity Institute and Professor of Business and Creativity at the University of Toronto and NYU; senior editor, The Atlantic and is the author of several influential global best sellers, including the award-winning 'The Rise of the Creative Class'.

Introduced by: HRH The Princess Royal, RSA President.

Chair: Luke Johnson, RSA Chair.

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This is a really superb lecture and discussion on how cities and the creativity they foster can produce a brighter future.

Monday, September 17, 2012

The Butterfly Effect

17 September 2012 Last updated at 05:19 ET

UK attitudes on immigration and welfare 'toughening'

Crowds Report author Penny Young said UK attitudes "continue to harden" towards immigration and welfare

Concerns about immigration and support for welfare reform are growing, a study of British social attitudes suggests.

The data from NatCen Social Research - based on the views of some 3,300 people - also shows a widespread anxiety about the prospect of further spending cuts.

But for the first time in nearly a decade, there was a rise in the number of those who think spending and taxes should be increased, the report says.

It comes after news the UK economy shrank by less than thought up to June.

The latest revised data from the Office for National Statistics found the economy contracted by 0.5% during the quarter between April and June - less than the 0.7% it announced in July.

The British Social Attitudes survey asks more than 3,000 people every year what it is like to live in Britain and how they think Britain is run.

Despite the tough economic climate, the study by independent social research agency NatCen reveals attitudes towards welfare and welfare claimants have toughened.

'Toughening attitude'

Only 28% of those asked wanted to see more spending on welfare - down from 35% at the beginning of the recession in 2008, and from 58% in 1991.

Report author and NatCen chief executive, Penny Young, said the study showed the public's view on welfare was "in tune... with the coalition's policies".

She said: "The recession doesn't seem to be changing things; attitudes continue to harden.

"One thing that we've seen is that even where groups are seen as perhaps more deserving - so retired people, disabled people - again for the first time since 2008 we've seen that the number of people who are prepared to see more money go on disability benefits has actually fallen."

And on immigration, the report suggests British people "strongly favour migrants they see to be socially beneficial", according to the report.

Some 51% would like to see immigration levels "reduce a lot", a figure which has risen from 39% in 1995.

The data also shows a further 24% would like to see levels "reduce a little".

Meanwhile, the proportion of people who want to see further public spending - even if this requires higher taxes - jumped from 31% to 36% between 2010 and 2011, after falling for nearly a decade from 63% in 2002.

More than half - 55% - would like spending levels to stay where they are.

At the same time, the report reveals many Britons are worried about the impact of spending cuts on public services, particularly education and health.

Satisfaction with the NHS fell from 70% in 2010 to 58% in 2011, according to the figures.

I can’t say that this so called “hardening” of social attitudes surprises me. The last 10 years has seen what Marx would have described as the proletariat, i.e. those who need to sell their labour for an income rather than live off of their land or capital, have seen a massive squeeze on their standard of living. The causes of this are already well known: stagnant wage growth, high housing cots, significant inflation on staples such as food, transport and utilities and increased taxation. Those same people look around and they see those both above and below not experiencing similar levels of relative decline; both the wealthy and those not working have avoided relative decline.

There has been much made of the proposed changes to housing benefit legislation, which caps the maximum level of benefit that can be received. The claim is that “the poor” will be forced out of affluent areas of London, but most ordinary working people, who are neither in receipt of six-figure salaries nor state benefits have been priced out of these areas for many years already. Such a situation is unsustainable; an enclave of the wealthy at least has greater logic than one where only the very rich and very poor can inhabit.

Societies that flourish have always been those where the “mass middle” feels happy and that their standard of living is gradually improving; the “American Dream” of the 1950s and 1960s. If governments around the developed world cannot star addressing this, then the historical conditions for the rise of demagogues will be place. There does need to be a reduced slice of the economic pie for the wealthy, the “1%” of many a protest slogan, but there also needs an elimination of the “something for nothing” benefit culture. There will be shrieks for both sides of the political aisle, but it is a necessary and inevitable, one way of the other. Even Marx would agree, being equally unsympathetic to both the idol rich and idol poor.

Nick

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Why do we screw things up?

“Most past bursts of human prosperity have come to nothing because they allocated too little money to innovation and too much to asset price inflation, war, corruption, luxury or theft.”

I took this quote from a book I’m reading, lent to me by neighbour Pete, called “The Rational Optimist” by Matt Ridley.  I am only a little way into it, but I would recommend it.  This quote summed up to me the problems faced in the UK and the wider world by the current economic crisis.  The problem is not capitalism, socialism, liberalism or any other “ism”; the problem is people and the innate greed, stupidity and selfishness of far too many people.  So stop worrying about whether you have the right logo on your clothes, whether your house has the perfect kitchen, or what happened on last night’s reality TV show, and get out there and do something useful and which makes the most of your talents, whatever it may be.

Nick

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

A Trillion Here, A Trillion There.........

......And soon you are talking real money.  This paraphrases a famous line by Ronald Reagan regarding the US budget deficit, but in the intervening quarter of a century, the numbers of zeros involved has changed.  In a stunning revelation, and one that has so far just emerged into the outer limits of online news, details of exactly how much money the US Federal Reserve pumped into the financial system to stop it grinding to a halt after the collapse of Lehman has been confirmed.  That number is $16,000,000,000,000/$16 trillion - http://1.usa.gov/OKS0ws and http://bit.ly/OKQVEV.  That is 13% more than the entire US economy.  Now this is just the US Federal Reserve, so this excludes support given by the Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, etc., etc…  My favourite quote is from Senator Bernie Sanders(who is himself more interesting than most Senators - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders) 

“This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you’re-on-your-own individualism for everyone else.”

I could not have put it better myself.  The question that springs to my mind, is was this the most expensive piece of duct tape in history, and all it has masked the problem rather than solving it?

Nick